Emerging Markets Debt: An Early Spring?
Streaming Income - A Podcast from Barings
How to Analyze the Ability of Countries to Satisfy Their Debts?
Small changes in willingness to have very large implications for sustainability. The main way is knowing the country. So we need to know the history and that means knowing what ticks the countries. At the end of the day, williness is a matter of trust.
Ricardo Adrogue, Head of Global Sovereign Debt and Currencies discusses the Barings' team's increasingly positive view on the outlook for emerging markets debt.
Episode Segments:
(02:21) - Reasons to be optimistic about EM Debt in 2023
(04:28) - The tug of war shaping global economic growth
(07:15) - A multi-speed global economy in 2023
(08:40) - Why inflation may fall faster than expected
(14:40) - The EM rate picture and a potentially weaker dollar
(18:49) - The outlook for credit vs. rates
(20:04) - Assessing the major geopolitical risks in EMs today
(25:34) - The risk that China's re-opening disappoints
(29:16) - Why the IMF's changing view on defaults is a risk
(33:57) - Where the most attractive value lies in EM today
Links to recent papers referenced in the podcast:
- Emerging Markets Debt: Springtime in January?
- Why Quantitative Tightening Could Make Quick Work On Inflation
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Any forecasts in this podcast are based upon Barings’ opinion of the market at the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice, dependent upon many factors. Any prediction, projection or forecast is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Investment involves risk. The value of any investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Any examples set forth in this podcast are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of any future investment results or investments. The composition, size of, and risks associated with an investment may differ substantially from any examples set forth in this podcast. No representation is made that an investment will be profitable or will not incur losses.
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