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Dan Heath | Upstream Thinking & Moment Making

Good Life Project

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How to Predict Graduation Rates in the 9th Grade

Some academics figured out that you could predict in the ninth grade who was likely to graduate and who was likely to drop out with 80 % accuracy. They formed what they called freshmen success teams, where all the faculty would come together - biology teachers, math coaches, counsillor. And over a period of years, magic starts to happen. Kids start coming to school more cause they're paying more attention to attendance. They start passing more classes. That freshman on track metric goes up. And then four years later, when those kids who had been kept on track hit senior year, they start graduating in higher numbers than predicted. Last year, the graduation rate was up to something like 78 per

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