Dalio's new book, The Principles for Navigating Big-Dack Crycees, is a little short. He doesn't leave out some critical details that I would have been interested to hear. A lot of this just feels like it was probably cribbed from the Neil Howe and Strauss book, The Fourth Turning. But at least in The Fourth Turning, they provided a substantial argument whenever they would explain their cycles. If you look at fiat currencies over time, why do they lose value versus gold? And then talking about the Dutch Pound, Great Britain... It's all non-controversial,. So I think his implication is that when it goes back to hard money, well,
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Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has written several books on the world of investing and the economy in general based on his years of experience as manager of the world’s largest hedge fund. In the latest of his ‘Principles’ series, Dalio applies his quantitative approach of macro investing to analyzing countries, seeking to identify the factors that lead to strength such as education and work ethic, as well as lagging indicators such as a reserve currency that allow a country to spend beyond its means but ultimately presage a fall from dominance. Notably, Dalio sees China’s rise to the top of global power as likely, with America, while ahead, slowly declining. Tonight we debate the merits of his analysis, as well as the overall validity of a global macroeconomic approach that overlooks key factors such as demographics in forecasting long term power status.
