The Importance of Probability in Historical Agnostics

There's no evidence that Christians were executed within 100 years of the resurrection. The only examples we have are a judicial process under Trajan and Tacitus. So I'm not saying any of that is implausible or even the least like I'm not even saying it's least likely scenario, though I personally think it is less likely. But you would end up with a kind of historical agnosticism if you only make everything possibilities instead of trying to assign probabilities to certain things.