When you have a power like China that they can be right about a lot more things, it is interesting. Do the political leaders of the country grasp this? Ultimately, I would say it doesn't matter. The United States has an abundance of technocratic institutions so do the Chinese at a much deeper scale. They are too overly invested in technocracy to invest in bureaucracy.
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Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has written several books on the world of investing and the economy in general based on his years of experience as manager of the world’s largest hedge fund. In the latest of his ‘Principles’ series, Dalio applies his quantitative approach of macro investing to analyzing countries, seeking to identify the factors that lead to strength such as education and work ethic, as well as lagging indicators such as a reserve currency that allow a country to spend beyond its means but ultimately presage a fall from dominance. Notably, Dalio sees China’s rise to the top of global power as likely, with America, while ahead, slowly declining. Tonight we debate the merits of his analysis, as well as the overall validity of a global macroeconomic approach that overlooks key factors such as demographics in forecasting long term power status.
