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Michael Mauboussin‘s Expectations Investing | The Right Amount of Lying

This Week in Intelligent Investing

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Is This Going to Be Mean Reverting?

Expectations framework is incredibly helpful in looking through, ah, what degree of persistence the market has been pricing in uncertain things. Protly overshot. Extrapolating that to the od upside. And now is overshooting on expecting mean reversion in some areas, not necessarily all areas. It's like base rates of maintaining 20 plus % growth for a decade. You know, they're working against you in that sense, for sure.

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