John A. Paulos — Avoiding Innumeracy (EP. 219)
Infinite Loops
Strategies for Broadening Confidence Intervals
The chapter introduces a strategy of obtaining broader confidence intervals by focusing on directional estimates rather than specific numbers, using positive and negative outcomes of an investment to gauge the company's potential future performance. It explores the impact of using numbers and probabilities in communication, showcasing examples of probabilistic reasoning, trade-offs between plausibility and probability in storytelling, and the influence of stereotypes and irrelevant details on decision-making processes.
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