Introduction

Sorry guys, LK-99 doesn't work. The prediction markets have dropped from highs in the 40s down to 5 - 10. It's over.

What does this tell us about prediction markets? Were they dumb to ever believe at all? Or were they aggregating the evidence effectively, only to update after new evidence came in?

I claim they were dumb. Although the media was running with the "maybe there's a room-temperature superconductor" story, the smartest physicists I knew were all very skeptical. The markets tracked the level of media hype, not the level of expert opinion. Here's my evidence:

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-82823