Will U.S. bases in the Gulf shrink?

Former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them.

From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast

00:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war

02:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war

03:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance?

04:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare

05:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C.

05:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war

06:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership

07:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran

08:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story

10:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies

11:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel

12:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C.

13:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran

15:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it

16:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved

17:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform

19:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t

20:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press

20:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together

22:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages

23:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable

23:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now

24:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west

24:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+

26:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging

28:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks

29:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats

30:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election

31:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party

32:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade

33:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition

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