Optimal Trade Expression: Treasuries over Swaps

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The day after the FOMC’s first rate cut of 2025, we sat down with Matt Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley, to unpack what the decision really meant, and what the markets maybe got wrong on first read. Matt talks about the shifting dissenters, how updates to the Summary of Economic Projections present a more complicated picture for the future path of rate cuts, and why Powell’s tone at the presser felt at odds with the statement itself.

We also dig into the Fed’s often-misunderstood, rarely referenced “third mandate” (moderate long-term rates), the limits of yield curve “engineering,” and the crucial point that U.S. mortgage rates don’t simply follow 30-year Treasury yields. 

We dive into Matt’s favored yield-curve steepener, going into the details of preferred expressions optimized for minimal cost of carry. Beyond rates, he explains why he expects further USD depreciation and gives us a rates-based framework to understand what sometimes feels like puzzling strength in the equities market. 

This episode is also our “Fixed Income Strategy 101” primer, where we cover: what macro/fixed-income strategy teams actually do, how they partner with sales & trading and clients, the difference between research/strategy/desk strategy, the top skills hiring managers look for (hint: learn Python), and common exit paths.

Matthew Hornbach is a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley, Global Head of Macro Strategy, and one of nine members of the Global Investment Committee for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. With support from his team, Matthew received the most individual or firm votes in the 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Institutional Investor Global Fixed-Income Research poll across all analysts across all Economics & Strategy categories.

Matthew began his career at Morgan Stanley in June 2000. He joined as a Japanese Government Bond (JGB) trader in Tokyo, then became a yen interest rate strategist. Matthew moved to New York in 2004 to make markets in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). He returned to Tokyo in 2006 to develop the US Agency MBS Pass-throughs business in Asia. In 2012, Matthew returned to New York as Head of U.S. Rates Strategy and became the Global Head of Rates Strategy shortly thereafter. Just prior to his 20th year at Morgan Stanley, he became Global Head of Macro Strategy. He oversees teams of developed and emerging market rates and FX strategists in New York, London, Tokyo, and Hong Kong.

Matthew holds a BA degree in economics from Vassar College and a Certificate of Management Excellen

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