Summary

David Petraeus (LinkedIn) joins Andrew (Twitter, LinkedIn) to discuss his strategic analysis of the war in Ukraine. General Petraeus is a former Director of the CIA.

What You’ll Learn

Intelligence

• General Petraeus’ appraisal of the situation in Ukraine
• What victory would look like for each side
• What role intelligence is playing in the War
• General Petraeus’ time as Director of the CIA 

Reflections

• The power of narrative
• Organizational culture

*EXTENDED SHOW NOTES & FULL TRANSCRIPT HERE*

Episode Notes

David Petraeus was CIA Director between September 2011 and November 2012, and prior to that had a 37-year career in the U.S. Army, rising to its highest rank of 4 star General. Are you curious to hear an in-depth strategic analysis of the Ukraine War from one of the most talented American officers of his generation? Would you like to know more about his time as CIA Director? Listen in to find out.

Quotes of the Week

"This is the first war with smartphones, internet connectivity, and social media, such as we see here. It was not present before. even really in the Iraq and Afghanistan war, certainly not to this scale. so that is a dramatic change…It also gives a degree of transparency to this war that I don't think has ever existed before." – David Petraeus.

*EXTENDED SHOW NOTES & FULL TRANSCRIPT HERE*

Resources 

SURFACE SKIM

*SpyCasts*

• Intelligence, Special Operations, and Strategy with Michael Vickers (2023) 
• Ukraine & the Alliance with NATO’s Assistant Secretary General for Intelligence David Cattler (2023) 
• Irregular Warfare & Intelligence with IWC Director Dennis Walters (2023)
• Ukraine & Intelligence: One Year On with Shane Harris (2023)
• The 75th Anniversary of the CIA with Former Director Robert Gates (2022)

*Beginner Resources*

• 5 Things You Should Know About the War in Ukraine, UN Refugee Agency (2023) [Short article]
• What Caused the Ukraine War?, J. S. Nye, Harvard Belfer Center (2022) [short article]
• A History of Ukraine in 5 Minutes, Sky News (2014) [5 min video]
• Putin’s War on Ukraine, Explained, Vox (2022) [8:48 min video]

*EXTENDED SHOW NOTES & FULL TRANSCRIPT HERE*

DEEPER DIVE

Books

• Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine, D. Petraeus & A. Roberts (Harper, 2023) 
• The New Makers of Modern Strategy, H. Brands et al. (Princeton University Press, 2023) 

The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine, S. Plokhy (Basic Books, 2017)

Primary Sources 

• Petraeus Testimony on U.S. Middle East Policy, Senate.gov (2015)
• Petraeus Confirmation Hearings to be Director, CIA, Senate.gov (2011)
• Petraeus Military Retirement Speech, American Rhetoric, YouTube (2011)
• Petraeus Confirmation Hearing, ISAF and U.S. Forces Afghanistan, C-SPAN (2010)
• The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam, David Petraeus, DocumentCloud (1987) [Petraeus’ Ph.D. dissertation]

*EXTENDED SHOW NOTES & FULL TRANSCRIPT HERE*

*Wildcard Resource*

• General Petraeus was known for the counterinsurgency approach he implemented in Afghanistan and Iraq – sometimes called The Petraeus Doctrine.
• You can implement your own counterinsurgency by playing a board game developed by former CIA analyst Volko Ruhnke - A Distant Plain: Insurgency in Afghanistan.