3min chapter

The Macro Trading Floor cover image

Are Markets Really Priced For A Recession? | John Normand

The Macro Trading Floor

CHAPTER

Is 3.35% a Terminal Rate?

The OIS curve in euro which prices in the central bank theoretical rate at a certain date in the future is 3.37% In six months from now after that entreas I see 100 basis point cuts already priced in by ECB. If they follow the J-Powell playbook from 2022 then the aim would be to bring The front end at least close to such inflation levels right To to ensure that we don't have negative real rates That's a very simple gauge of it. You're talking about four four and a half five percent Terminal rate you're talking aboutI mean two-year shots German government bonds are training a two and a half percent and risk Two and a half per cent

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