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Surveillance: Fed Special

Bloomberg Surveillance

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Is the Market Underpricing Longer-Term Inflation?

It's a very asymmetric outcome right now. The market is pricing for the bank scenario. It's pricing for the last 20 or 30 years of Fed policy behavior. Financial sector stress leads to a Fed that pauses and that cuts. That's what we've seen from the Federal Reserve. And if the crisis is big enough, we'll see that again. If this ends up like UK LDI then this will be a lot less of an extent.

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