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Late Cycle Bond Trades | Mark Cabana on Mild Recession Case and Treasury Market Supply
Forward Guidance
The Fed's Neutral Estimate for the 10 Year Forecast
A year ago we never would have thought it was at 4% you know, in 2005 we never thought that we'd see negative rates in Europe. It's very, very hard to guess. And so, the Fed tells us that they think neutral is 2.5%. That's 2% inflation and 50 basis points of real rates. We believe that there will be some type of term primia treasury cheapening in relation to the expected Fed path as we were just discussing. The risks are skewed slightly higher than that. Think, or in Ukraine, think onshoring, more domestic investment in things like chips for resiliency purposes.
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