The Future: Volume of New Products and Survival Rates

You can’t build great products on gut instinct, and yet, according to IBM’s global study of 1,000 enterprises, 77% of organisations using generative AI aren’t seeing any financial benefit. In this episode on The Product Experience podcast, Lily Smith sits down with Matthew Certner, Digital Product Engineering and Design Partner at IBM, to unpack the four key traits that drive ROI in AI-powered product teams: flexibility, incremental and targeted delivery, data-led decisions, and cross-functional collaboration. 

Recorded live at the Industry conference, this conversation offers practical lessons for any product leader navigating the hype and reality of AI adoption. 

Chapters
00:00 – The danger of building on gut instinct
00:37 – IBM’s global study on generative and agentic AI adoption
01:00 – Meet Matthew Certner, Digital Product Engineering Partner at IBM
02:00 – Why most enterprises aren’t realising ROI from AI
04:50 – What the top-performing 20% of companies do differently
05:10 – The four key behaviours driving success
07:00 – Flexibility: adapting quickly to market feedback
08:10 – Incremental and targeted delivery — the “golden thread” principle
10:30 – Data-led decision-making versus the HIPPO effect
11:45 – Cross-functional collaboration and robust adoption
13:10 – Behavioural factors that make or break AI adoption
14:20 – Inside IBM’s “value orchestration” framework
15:10 – The Golden Thread in practice — a sticky-note story from Dallas
17:10 – Transparency and traceability in product development
18:00 – How IBM helps teams that aren’t seeing value from AI
21:00 – The paradox of moving too fast or too slow with AI
24:00 – Making the Golden Thread a living document
25:20 – Inside IBM Garage: speed of a startup, scale of an enterprise
27:40 – Why productivity savings, not hype, drive AI ROI
29:00 – How large organisations structure innovation teams
30:00 – The future: 800 million new products by 2026
31:00 – Why 95% will fail — and what the 5% will get right
33:10 – Final reflections: value, purpose and the human element

Featured Links: Follow Matthew on LinkedIn | IBM Garage | Industry Conference Cleveland 2025 recap at Mind The Product

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Our Hosts
Lily Smith enjoys working as a consultant product manager with early-stage and growing startups and as a mentor to other product managers. She’s currently Chief Product Officer at BBC Maestro, and has spent 13 years in the tech industry working with startups in the SaaS and mobile space. She’s worked on a diverse range of products – leading the product teams through discovery, prototyping, testing and delivery. Lily also founded ProductTank Bristol and runs ProductCamp in Bristol and Bath.

Randy Silver is a Leadership & Product Coach and Consultant. He gets teams unstuck, helping you to supercharge your results. Randy's held interim CPO and Leadership roles at scale-ups and SMEs, advised start-ups, and been Head of Product at HSBC and Sainsbury’s. He participated in Silicon Valley Product Group’s Coaching the Coaches forum, and speaks frequently at conferences and events. You can join one of communities he runs for CPOs (CPO Circles), Product Managers (Product In the {A}ether) and Product Coaches. He’s the author of What Do We Do Now? A...