The distribution of asset price returns is a subject of much study in the literature of empirical finance. We know, of course, that equity returns are left-tailed, subject to the occasional violent plunge. But other asset classes are different, and in this context it was a pleasure to welcome Ben Hoff, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at Société Générale, to the Alpha Exchange. Ben describes commodities as a dual system — one that exists both physically and financially. This duality means real-world frictions such as storage, transport, and substitution shape risk and return in ways financial models often miss.
Unlike equities, where the volatility risk premium (VRP) is structural and macro-driven — investors chronically overpay for protection against crashes — the commodity VRP is episodic and micro-driven, emerging only when the physical system’s natural buffers are overwhelmed.
Ben likens the commodity ecosystem to a CDO structure of risk absorption. The first-loss tranche is “optionality in time,” where storage smooths shocks by shifting supply forward. The mezzanine tranche cures through space and form, rerouting flows across geographies or substituting between products. Only when those defenses are depleted does the equity tranche — financial volatility — take over. This hierarchy explains why volatility in commodities is less persistent but often more explosive when it surfaces.
We also explore how the financialization of commodities — benchmark indices, systematic flows, and vol strategies — has created visible “signatures” in pricing, yet the underlying markets remain driven by physical constraints and optionality. Ben’s takeaway: commodities are inherently antifragile, making their risk premia complex, localized, and highly path dependent.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ben Hoff.
