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How to Make Better Predictions About GPT 4, 5, 6
If you're well calibrated when you say 90%, the undignified thing is not being wrong, it's being predictably wrong. You don't want to keep on being wrong in a predictable direction. I do not feel that seeing being has changed my model of what intelligence is. It has changed my understanding of what kind of work can be performed by which kind of processes and by which means does not change my understanding of the work.