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How to Be a Cautious Investor
When the market's flying high and valuations are stretched, clearly you need a lot of question. When the market's really low in its cycle, there's not much risk of that. Nobody thinks anything good is going to happen. So I'd like to keep the same in their normal balance,. for Oaktree means a cautious balance.
Clay Finck completes his review of Howard Marks’ book – Mastering the Market Cycle. This is a wonderful book for understanding market cycles and where we are at in the cycle at any given time. Most investors aren’t aware of the cyclicality of markets and are prone to fall victim to greed and fear at the exact wrong times. Superior investors are aware of markets cycles, and position themselves to profit from them.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro.
01:33 - How Howard Marks thinks about the real estate cycle.
13:02 - The three stages of a bull market and bear market.
14:45 - Why cycles will continue indefinitely into the future.
15:30 - How Isaac Newton lost a fortune in the South Sea Bubble in 1720.
21:47 - The telltale sign to look for to almost be certain that you’re in a market bubble.
33:41 - Why ‘silver bullets’ never pan out well for investors.
45:05 - Why Oaktree thinks timing market bottoms is a fool’s errand.
47:13 - Why success can bring the seeds of failure for many investors, companies, and sectors.
58:05 - Howard Marks’s thoughts on where we are at in the market cycle in 2023.
72:55 - How to know when is the appropriate time to position your portfolio aggressively and defensively.
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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