Ep. 1105: A Double Punch with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Importance of a Systematic Trading Strategy
In every case, the accuracy of experts was matched or exceeded by a simple algorithm. One reason is that experts try to be clever and consider complex combinations of features in making their predictions. Ironically, as you say, it's the people who think of themselves as experts. They are more likely to be overconfident and overestimate their ability.
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