Black Swan vs White Swan Events

How to make smarter decisions that improve your life by understanding your mind and it's hidden psychology.

We are all storytelling creatures, desperate to fit the world into a narrative that makes sense to us. Thus, we build echo chambers not because we are stupid, but because we are afraid.

The Confirmation Bias is a shield against the discomfort of being wrong. The Availability Bias shapes our worldview based on the loudest stories, not the most important facts.

This episode reviews 7 cognitive biases the explore the friction between what is comfortable and what is true. Learning helps us build tools for the art of long-term thinking in a short-term world.

• Audit your inputs: Step outside your algorithmic feed to find the friction of opposing views.

• Reframe the risk: Turn "Black Swan" surprises into "White Swan" predictions by analyzing the unsexy data.

• Choose commitment: Overcome the paralysis of infinite choice by making a "good enough" decision and sticking to it.

Go make a ruckus by choosing to think clearly today.

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CHAPTERS

00:00 The Confirmation Bias

04:14 The Availability Bias

07:08 The Neglect of Probability Bias

09:12 Black Swan vs. White Swan Events

11:00 The Hindsight Bias

13:47 The Outcome Bias

16:15 The Paradox of Choice Bias

18:56 The Time Discounting Bias

21:10 Becoming More Rational Thinkers

22:14 Wrap Up

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