Problems: probabilities vs. poll results

All of this week's episodes of It Could Happen Here put together in one large file. 

- Arab Israeli Peace and New Visions for Gaza feat. Dana El Kurd

- Oops All Gambling, Political Betting Joins the News

- Natalism feat. Andrew

- The Insurrectionist Running to Replace Nancy Mace

- Executive Disorder: White House Weekly #45

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Sources/Links:

Arab Israeli Peace and New Visions for Gaza feat. Dana El Kurd

Bad Cousins - https://badcousins.show/

GREAT Trust Plan - https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/f86dd56a-de7f-4943-af4a-84819111b727.pdf 

A Plan to Rebuild Gaza Lists Nearly 30 Companies. Many Say They’re Not Involved  - https://www.wired.com/story/a-plan-to-rebuild-gaza-lists-nearly-30-companies-many-say-theyre-not-involved/

Paradox of Peace - https://academic.oup.com/isagsq/article/3/3/ksad042/7280243

Oops All Gambling, Political Betting Joins the News

https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-cnn-prediction-market-partnership

https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-cnbc-deal-cnn-data-integration-partnership-2025-12

https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1996233186251075862?s=20

https://illinoislawreview.org/wp-content/ilr-content/articles/2008/3/Cherry.pdf

https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/time-galactic-prediction-market

https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/behnamstatement051024

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/02/business/appeals-court-allows-kalshi-election-betting/index.html

https://www.datawallet.com/crypto/polymarket-restricted-countries

https://www.gameshub.com/news/news/are-the-walls-closing-in-on-polymarket-after-latest-european-ban-2837953/

https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/polymarket-banned-romania-for-operating-without-a-licence/

https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2025/08/18/114882-polymarket-banned-in-australian-amid-crackdown-on-illegal-betting-election-wagering-concerns

https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket

https://blog.uma.xyz/articles/unpacking-polymarkets-meteoric-rise-in-numbers

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/polymarket-authorized-for-u-s-return-days-after-donald-trump-jr-joins-as-advisor-c3c8b348

https://truthpredict.net/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/boazsobrado/2025/12/04/alleged-insider-nets-1-million-on-polymarket-in-24-hours/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcPwUiMPj6w

https://news.kalshi.com/p/zohran-mamdani-cites-kalshi-election-odds

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/tennessee-us-house-7-special-election-polls-2025.html

https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-26-do-prediction-markets-make

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket

https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting-states/

https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/23501236/supreme-court-strikes-federal-law-prohibiting-sports-gambling

https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1996978855538823522?s=20

Natalism feat. Andrew

https://iep.utm.edu/anti-natalism/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/11/what-is-pronatalism-right-wing-republican

https://www.npr.org/2025/04/30/nx-s1-5382208/whats-behind-the-pronatalist-movement-to-boost-the-birth-rate

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40660745/

The Insurrectionist Running to Replace Nancy Mace

https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/south-carolina-man-sentenced-assaulting-law-enforcement-during-jan-6-capitol-breach-0

https://www.postandcourier.com/beaufort-county/politics/tyler-dykes-campaign-sc1-congress/article_c255115c-45cf-430e-b4a4-160a322631e1.html

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/67681795/united-states-v-dykes/

https://atlantaantifa.org/2023/04/19/inside-southern-sons-active-club-part-i/

https://atlantaantifa.org/2023/04/19/inside-southern-sons-active-club-part-ii/

Executive Disorder: White House Weekly #45

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/12/10/2025-22461/agency-information-collection-activities-revision-arrival-and-departure-record-form-i-94-and#page-57209

https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/09/politics/georgia-democrat-eric-gisler

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5641420-democrats-gain-momentum-miami/?utm_social_handle_id=1917731&utm_social_post_id=619113438

https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/12/supreme-court-allows-texas-to-use-redistricting-map-challenged-as-racially-discriminatory/ 

https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/man-charged-planting-explosive-devices-outside-rnc-and-dnc-january-5-2021

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/pipe-bomb-suspect-told-fbi-believed-2020-election-conspiracy-theories-rcna247544

https://www.fanfiction.net/s/7869373/1/Return-to-Sunny-Town

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