Economic Paradoxes and Government Spending

In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

In this episode, Rosenberg challenged the prevailing optimism about the U.S. economy, arguing that the apparent strength in GDP numbers is largely due to unsustainable government spending. He highlighted discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, suggesting that the economy may be weaker than it appears. Rosenberg expressed concern about the stock market's high valuations, drawing parallels to previous market bubbles. He warned of potential risks, including a possible recession in 2025, and discussed the dangers of excessive exposure to equities, particularly among older investors. Rosenberg advocated for a more defensive investment strategy, recommending an increased allocation to bonds and gold, while maintaining a cautious approach to equities. Throughout the conversation, he emphasized the importance of understanding historical patterns and the risks of "new era" thinking in financial markets.

Links:

https://rosenbergresearch.com/

https://x.com/EconguyRosie

Timestamps:

00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation

01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence

02:57 Analysis of the Fed's Beige Book and economic indicators

05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers

08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election

10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market

13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy

15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown

17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy

19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election

21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons

25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs

27:43 Lags in economic policy effects

31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues

35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth

39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations

42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation

46:40 Concerns about passive index investing

50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy

54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation

57:22 Approach to investing in bonds

01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds

01:02:27 Parting thoughts