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Market Crash Unlikely Until July, Says Volatility Veteran | Noel Smith
Forward Guidance
Is the Volatilities a Function of Rate of Change?
In mackro you shouldn't really base on conviction. You should be quantitative and rigorous, but especially intrading volatility. We've had long puts all of 20 20, and they've been modestly ok. And if you look at where is val bid, are they coming for our vena, for vix calls? Not really. It's not so much that we're in a storm. Is the storm picking up and getting worse? Is it getting better? There are many different ways to do that.
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