Top five governors most likely to flip

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck breaks down the mounting political fallout from a string of fatal and controversial shootings by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, including the killing of ICU nurse Alex Pretti—an incident that has sparked protests, outrage, and deep questions about federal law-enforcement use of force. Bystander video and independent analysis have sharply contradicted official claims that Pretti posed a threat, amplifying criticism from local officials and national figures alike while the Trump administration has scrambled to contain the damage by removing the Border Patrol commander and sending veteran immigration official Tom Homan to Minneapolis to calm tensions.

As Republicans in Congress publicly wrestle with how to respond—and some distance themselves from the administration’s actions—Chuck explores how Trump’s repeated emphasis on which voters supported him personally, rather than addressing the substance of the crisis, is complicating the situation politically. With Minneapolis emerging as a political disaster for Trump, the episode also looks at how Trump’s handling of Kristi Noem and broader GOP infighting could create openings for Democrats, especially as concern grows over civil liberties, federal overreach, and the credibility of government narratives in the face of widespread skepticism and media scrutiny. 

Then, historian Heather Ann Thompson discusses her new book “Fear and Fury: The Reagan Eighties, the Bernie Goetz Shootings and the Rebirth” that revisits the 1984 Bernie Goetz subway shooting and explains why it remains a chilling precursor to the racialized fear and political rage shaping America today. Thompson walks through who Goetz was, how he shot four unarmed Black teenagers, and how—without video evidence—the media constructed a vigilante narrative that erased the victims and fueled public support for Goetz despite his own recorded confession. She situates the case in a New York City gripped by crime, austerity, and racial anxiety, arguing that fear was real but deliberately misdirected by sensationalist media, tabloid culture, and political leaders who framed young Black men as the threat while stripping away public resources.

The conversation traces how Reagan-era policies, talk radio, and the tabloidification of news helped turn crime into profitable outrage, laying the groundwork for stop-and-frisk, the Central Park Five, and ultimately the politics Donald Trump would later master. Thompson connects the Goetz case to today’s wealth inequality, media groupthink, and deep political divides over racialized violence, showing how these stories are not aberrations but part of a long continuum. The episode is a sobering examination of how fear, race, and media narratives can warp justice—and how understanding that history is essential to understanding where America is now.

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 governor’s seats most likely to flip in 2026, weighs in on the massive looming cuts to the staff at the Washington Post and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Trump attends Iowa event with “affordability message”

01:45 Trump begins to try to walk back from chaos in Minneapolis

02:30 Greg Bovino removed from border patrol role in Minneapolis

03:15 Trump keeps highlighting that Renee Good’s parents voted for him

04:15 Trump sent Tom Homan to Minneapolis to try & calm things down

05:30 Republicans in congress speak out after killing of Alex Pretti

06:30 Trump signals support for Kristi Noem, but could change his mind

07:30 Resentment from Senate R’s over some cabinet secretaries

09:15 Political infighting could become contagious but Trump will back Miller

11:00 Trump is playing political cleanup, but not firing Noem is a mistake

13:00 Not firing Noem would be a political gift for Democrats

14:00 Trump’s trade policy is creating trade deals for other countries, not us

14:45 Minneapolis creates permission slip for Republicans to distance themselves 

15:15 Trump’s stop in Iowa was supposed to be a pivot

16:15 Consumer confidence shows the public behaving like it’s a recession

17:00 Consumer confidence lowest since 2014, worse than during pandemic

18:00 Public doubts the job market & job security

20:00 Trump claims inflation is over, that’s not what the public is feeling

21:15 Iowa ranks 50th in nation for economic growth, worst since the 80’s

22:00 Tariffs have devastated Iowa farmers

23:30 If Iowa goes blue, Democrats will win the house and senate

24:15 Trump’s policies have hurt Iowa more than other states

25:00 Trump’s economic message isn’t resonating

26:00 Trump really messed up his gun politics 

27:30 Trump will throw anybody under the bus to protect himself

37:00 Heather Ann Thompson joins the Chuck ToddCast

38:30 Bernie Goetz was an early analog for the white rage we see today

39:30 Who was Bernie Goetz & what is the history of the story?

40:00 NYC felt like a city in crisis during the 80’s

41:00 Goetz shoots four unarmed black teenagers

42:00 There was no footage of the shooting & media shaped the event

43:00 Goetz was celebrated by white New Yorkers as a vigilante

43:45 Goetz gave lengthy video confession & still acquitted on most chargers

45:00 The victims have been completely written out of the story

46:00 Victims were denied compensation by the city’s crime victim fund

47:00 The shooting destroyed the victim’s lives even though they survived

48:45 New York felt like a city on the brink in the 1980’s

49:30 New Yorkers were living in fear of many parts of the city due to crime

50:45 Media clearly made the “threat” young black men

51:30 By 1984, trash was piling up and areas of NYC were underpoliced

52:30 The fear was warranted, but was misdirected by Rupert Murdoch, others

54:30 The Reagan administration doubled down on austerity

55:45 Eventually NYC experienced a renaissance, the “Guiliani miracle”

56:45 Austerity was sold on the idea of the “underserving” & criminal underbelly

57:45 Stop & frisk and other policies pushed underclass further away from Manhattan

58:30 Trump was a beneficiary of these politics & rode them to the White House

59:15 Trump is a creature of the 80’s since that era was best for him

1:00:30 Trump understood the power of television, fear & race baiting

1:01:15 Trump sells what the Reagan revolution sold, targeted working class whites

1:02:00 Impact of the Goetz story on the Central Park 5 story

1:03:30 The tabloidification of the national media was born out of 80’s NYC

1:04:30 Talk radio was central in turning crime into high rating media content

1:05:15 Subway shootings were rare, but everyone feared them

1:06:30 Reagan’s policies stripped away resources that led to working class crises

1:07:15 Reagan gutted multiple public programs

1:08:15 Under Reagan, the tax burden was shifted away from the wealthy

1:09:00 Similarities between the early 1900’s and early 2000’s

1:10:15 America is in a wealth inequality crisis & target of misinformation campaign

1:11:30 Media groupthink was a contributing factor to Bernie Goetz’s acquittal

1:12:15 Goetz case peeled back the veneer hiding overt racism

1:13:15 Media sands the edges of stories to avoid controversy over coverage

1:14:00 Sensationalist, conservative media has become very successful

1:15:30 Alternative press covered the Goetz story much differently

1:16:15 Bronx jury awarded one of the victims $43 million

1:17:00 Goetz shooting was an unhinged story, but shows how we got here

1:19:00 There are political dividing lines over racialized shootings

1:20:15 Society meant to aspire to wealth, but live with suspicion & fear on streets

1:21:00 What’s the thread between the urban stories that you’ve told?

1:22:00 There was a massive cover up at Attica

1:22:45 If it wasn’t Goetz, it would have been another similar incident

1:24:00 How long after an event do you think is the sweet spot for telling story?

1:26:15 As a society, we don’t have patience for context

1:26:45 Checking personal bias when reporting a historical event

1:29:30 What Heather is working on next

1:34:30 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Heather Ann Thompson

1:35:15 ToddCast Top 5 governor’s seats most likely to flip

1:36:30 #1 Kansas

1:38:15 #2 Iowa

1:40:30 #3 Michigan

1:42:45 #4 Arizona #5 Nevada

1:45:00 The Washington Post announces major cuts to staff

1:45:45 Hard to understand what Bezos’s vision is for the Post

1:47:30 How can you be a local paper & not cover the community?

1:48:45 Post is losing $100m/year but Bezos’s burns tons of cash

1:49:15 Amazon set $75 million on fire for the Melania documentary

1:51:00 If Bezos wanted the Post to succeed he could have invested in it

1:53:15 Bezos should sell the Post rather than gutting it

1:55:15 The Post editorial page has been diminished under Bezos

1:57:00 Hopefully Bezos changes course

1:58:00 Ask Chuck

1:58:15 How long will this dark period of American history last?

2:04:30 At what point does a blatant lie from a politician qualify as fraud?

2:07:00 Chance that an Ossoff win could catapult him to nomination?

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