The Availability Heuristic Is a Rule of Thumb

The availability heuristic is a rule of thumb. The favorable information favorable to that view is made more available and information that discredits it is made unavailable. Most people are not statistically sophisticated, which is one of Kahneman and Terresky's points. You can find 10 people who did very well in housing, you can find 10People who did horribly in housing but it doesn't owe you anything by itself. It's not an efficient market. If prices follow a random walk if people are being influenced by the herd then they wouldn't be able to make decisions like this.