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The Right Thing to Do Is Maximize Pleasure
If we say that the right thing to do is that which maximizes pleasure or that which minimizes suffering, then we'd be committed to the view that if he chose pill b, even if it works, if pl a would have worked, he did the wrong thing. So maybe what we should do is not what actually maximizes pleasure, but what will probably maximize pleasure. It's just that the best way, on the whole, to achieve that is to adopt, in our decision procedure, to take a probabilistic approach.