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4min chapter
Self-Improvement and Research Ethics (with Rob Wiblin)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
The Odds of Romney Wining the Election
I made a legal bet against Trump winning the luncheon. I thought we're really good odds. But in fact, the market is smarter than me. There aren't enough people to just be completely rational and make money on these markets. And so the odds here are driven by partisans who are willing to bet between very large amounts of money on candidates that they think are going to win. They've just gotten unlucky a few times.
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