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184 – The Cultic Milieu

The Bayesian Conspiracy

CHAPTER

The Importance of Intuitiveness

I think the whole point is that it's not intuitive which is why the carny guys make money. If you ask people to imagine themselves $500 richer and ask if they prefer a certain loss of $100 or 20% chance of losing 200 they'll usually take the chance of losing $200. It's the same probability distribution over both outcomes just different descriptions and different choices. That kind of helped me understand the point except for I guess I don't quite get what does it mean to imagine yourself $ 500 richer and then imagine losing money like do I have to do any point does money actually change hands for this? "If you're working with people who are trustworthy like your friends at a

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