What Are the Fundamental Changes in the Economy?

The Gulf region can no longer rely on the traditional growth drivers – oil, government spending, and large infrastructure projects. The anticipated rise in living standards must come by other means. But the extraordinary destruction of demand during the pandemic has underscored the persistent volatility of oil markets.

In Trials of Resilience: How Covid-19 Is Driving Economic Change in the Arab Gulf (Gilgamesh, 2021), Jarmo T. Kotilaine argues that the crisis has also shown that the region needs stronger businesses now more than ever. The long-standing and deeply felt need to bring the private sector to the forefront, driving growth through businesses that are more dynamic and technology-based, has to be a central tenet of all government policy in the region. This is where the role of the virus will be ambiguous. By revealing the risks and costs of trying to stand by ‘business as usual’, it will serve as an important wake-up call for the need to plan for longer term prosperity. Nowhere is this more so than in the corporate sector and the labour markets, where the virus might even serve as a powerful catalyst for changes that have been anticipated for decades.

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