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3min chapter
Did The Fed Just Back Down? | Joseph Wang & Michael Ippolito
Forward Guidance
The Fed's Expectations for Interest Rates
The odds of a hike in July are about 60%. So 60% chance another 25 basis point to 5.5% on the upper range, but 40% chance that they stay where they are. I think an extra 50 basis points this year is totally reasonable and would be my base case. The Western world, so the EU, Canada, Australia, the UK, all have tremendous inflation problems. And it just seems like things aren't working the way that central banks thought they would.
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