I think that's such a wise observation, Bren. And I think it explains why things seem so not chaotic, but there seems to be so little clarity or so much disagreement. We hear everyone say it that this is such a tough macro environment. Like translated just means no one knows what's going on, including the central bankers, or no one can kind of get a handle on that. I wonder if investors are having the same issue, right? Like if you can't look at year on year, are they faced with the same problem that there's just no forward clarity? I mean,

I think absolutely, because you look at things like a lot of the standard metrics, like say the yield curve inverting, or NHB sentiment collapsed. And if you look at history, so excuse me, the other thing is that any kind of historical analogy or analog that you run then probably doesn't work because none of this stuff has ever happened before. So if you look at like NHB housing index, usually that turns and then construction employment collapses like a year later, because that's just how it works. All the houses that are being built now, they finish those houses. So sentiments going down, but they got to finish the houses that they already started. And once they finish, then those those construction people get laid off and they don't get jobs. But this time, basically the demand went down, the sentiment went down, but then this fiscal stuff started like the building, re-shoring and plants in Kentucky and Ohio and all that. And there was some unknown shortage already. So as those projects, those home projects ended, those workers either got absorbed by other projects that couldn't start because they were short of workers, or other service jobs who were also short of workers, or this infrastructure stuff picked up the slack. And now there's shortages in those jobs. Like in Ohio, they can't find enough people to build the chip plants. So all of this stuff is unprecedented. And you threw like what $5 trillion at the economy. And that money didn't just like it didn't, it wasn't like all spent in 2021, although most of it seemed to have gone into crypto in 2021. But it wasn't all spent. And then someone posted a good tweet that said, US, what was it, US consumers now have somewhere between 99 cents and $5 trillion of excess savings. Like that's how that's how confused everyone is. And so forget about forecasting, it's just hard to even measure the stuff, right? Like look at non-farm payrolls, has beaten 14 months in a row on the un-revised, like the actual announcement has beaten 14 times in a row. And that again, like for it to beat five times in a row is pretty weird. Like six or seven is unusual and like 14 is insane. So it just shows like everything is impossible to understand. And I think like in that environment, the best way to be is agnostic, but then a lot of people. So going back to your initial question about like, how has this harmed investors is that people have been very bearish because a lot of the normal signs of apocalypse were present in like the inverted yield curve and housing and all that. And yet those none of those things came to fruition because other bullish factors came in to save the day. And so I think like the biggest, I mean, really the biggest bias in finance through my whole career has been just people are way too bearish. Like stocks go up whatever 70% of the time and 70, 73% of years or something like that. And I would say like people are generally at least 50% bearish most of the time. So

there's always a mismatch. Why do you think that?

I mean, I know why it is. I mean, I've written a ton about this. It's just that that's a human bias, right? Is that the mainstream media has a negativity bias? Because that's what people want to read. Being negative makes you sound smarter. Being bullish makes you sound like you're waving the pom poms on CNBC. So and it's like being bearish also sells subscriptions. Like a friend of mine runs a newsletter and he was bearish like, this is way, way back in the day. He was bearish from like, oh, eight to 2013. And then he was like, okay, I've seen the light. I'm getting bullish. And he lost one third of his subscribers because people want confirmation of their bearish view. And like, there's so much literature on this. Like people always think everything's getting worse. But then on many metrics, you know, like global global poverty and, you know, women's rights and many, many, many, many metrics, things are getting like inexorably better. But the human bias is to be negative. And the mainstream media is like that, Twitter is like that. So I think it's very hard to have a diet of information that's balanced. It's just easier to make the bear case all the time. And like, to be fair, the bear case made sense. Like for ages in for a good part of 2022 and 2023.