Intro

Today on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode which originally aired on The Cognitive Revolution, a podcast from the Turpentine Network. Samo Burja and Nathan Labenz discuss AI's impact on geopolitics, scientific progress, and economic strategies, emphasizing the importance of AI science, the risks of weaponizing AI, and the future of industrial and energy policies in the U.S. and China.

—

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

—

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

—

SPONSORS:

🤲🏼 GiveWell is dedicated to finding outstanding giving opportunities and publishing the full details of their analysis to help donors decide where to give. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. (Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to support our show.)

💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

—

LINKS:

The Cognitive Revolution Website: https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai

Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ 

—

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

• The impact of AI on geopolitics and scientific progress represents a significant area of strategic analysis.
• AI development serves as a test of people's worldviews and assumptions, revealing underlying beliefs about technology and intelligence.
• While there has been real scientific progress in AI, recent years have primarily involved applying theoretical insights from the early 2000s rather than creating fundamentally new breakthroughs.
• Scaling laws for AI have proven less reliable than initially thought, with unexpected developments like improved compute efficiency emerging.
• Companies with the best AI scientists, rather than just the most compute power, are likely to make the most significant breakthroughs.
• Universities have experienced a "strip-mining" of top AI talent by industry, fundamentally affecting the academic system.
• ChatGPT's viral success may have actually slowed theoretical progress by shifting focus from research to products.
• The chip ban on China came too late and effectively serves as a subsidy for Chinese chip manufacturers to develop their own technology.
• The US needs to focus on industrial policy, particularly in semiconductors and energy production, potentially creating a new "Silicon Valley" with special economic zones.
• The US-China relationship should be treated as an economic competition rather than a military/security conflict.
• India is likely to emerge as a significant player in AI, while Europe's prospects appear less promising following Macron's departure.
• Concerns about weaponized AI suggest the importance of peaceful technological development over military applications.
• The Leopold Plan (keeping China down while the US develops decisive AI advantage) appears unrealistic and potentially harmful.
• Current generative AI technology remains insufficient for sophisticated analytical work.