3min chapter

Forward Guidance cover image

How To Spot Overvalued Companies | Tobias Carlisle

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

Microsoft's 11% Free Cash Value

Microsoft was too expensive in the late 1990s and then traded sideways from 2000 to 2010. By 2010 lots of value guys were pitching it as a good prospect because it had 11% free cash value. From 2011 to 2015 it did start picking up steam and so from that period to today it's had a spectacular run. Now I think it looks more like the opportunity that it looked like in the late 90s than the one in 2010 but if interest rates run out which they do seem to have been doing that's a much more difficult assessment.

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