In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prediction-markets-stephen-grugett/
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Links:
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Twitter:
@patio11
@ManifoldMarkets
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:26) Understanding prediction markets
(02:15) Manifold's calibration and performance
(06:48) The role of bots in prediction markets
(10:52) User-created markets and community practices
(15:49) Forecasting, and superforecasters
(18:26) Crafting good markets on Manifold
(23:07) Sponsor: Check
(24:20) Evolution of Manifold's loan system
(26:13) Market participation and capital efficiency
(27:57) The LK-99 superconductor markets on Manifold
(28:57) Social aspects of market participation
(32:31) Building Manifold and user growth trajectory
(34:57) Innovative use cases for prediction markets
(38:52) Prediction market vs. traditional market
(42:22) Play money markets with real cash prizes
(46:14) Historical and regulatory context of prediction markets
(49:32) The importance of market optics
(50:44) Wrap
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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.
