How Nevada Became a 21st-Century Bellwether

Veteran Nevada journalist and author of the upcoming book “The Game Changer”, Jon Ralston joins Chuck Todd to break down how the Silver State became America’s ultimate political bellwether — and what that means heading into 2026. They explore how the state’s service-based economy, booming Hispanic population, and explosion of non-affiliated voters have reshaped Nevada politics, plus how “No Tax on Tips” gave Trump an unexpected foothold. Ralston explains why Vegas’ tourism slump could upend the next governor’s race and how corporatization has changed the city’s character.

They also dig into the state of local journalism — from the challenges of nonprofit reporting to competing against hedge fund-owned outlets — and reflect on the late Harry Reid’s political legacy. From power-hungry governors to the fight for Nevada’s “first-in-the-nation” status, this episode reveals why what happens in Vegas won’t be staying there in 2026.

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Timeline:

00:00 Jon Ralston joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:00 Adapting to the breakneck speed of the news cycle

04:00 Nevada has become the preeminent swing state in America

06:45 The service industry & growing hispanic population define Vegas

07:30 Nevada is a bellwether for the Democratic party

09:15 Nevada continuing to lobby for first in the nation status

10:45 Las Vegas natives are a rarity, Vegas is a destination

12:30 Trump was able to connect with NV voters via “No Tax on Tips”

13:30 NV voters felt Democratic party took them for granted

14:30 Nevada’s governor has a lot of power

17:00 There’s been an explosion of non affiliated voters in Nevada

18:30 Is either major party making a strong case to non affiliated voters?

20:00 How competitive will the Nevada governor’s race be?

22:30 Does Joe Lombardo have ambition outside the state of Nevada?

23:30 Lombardo’s strategy could look similar to Glenn Youngkin’s

25:30 What’s behind the drop in tourism to Vegas?

26:30 Canada, immigration policy and lack of value proposition hurting Vegas

27:30 Corporatization of casinos & high prices have driven away tourists

28:30 Tourism drop could greatly impact the governor’s race

29:00 Any progress on diversifying the Nevada economy?

30:15 Making Vegas “Hollywood East” comes with huge challenges

31:45 Would energy be the best way to diversify the Vegas economy?

32:30 Warren Buffet has monopoly on NV utilities, preventing new investment

33:30 Nonprofit vs for profit journalism

35:00 Dealing with big moneyed interests as a nonprofit journalists

37:00 Local journalism in Nevada has mostly been hollowed out

37:45 Dealing with “donor fatigue” as a nonprofit journalist

39:15 Journalism skills translate well to uncomfortable fundraising asks

41:00 Challenges in the advertising space for journalism

43:00 Why have advertising dollars been harder to get for news orgs?

45:30 Hedge funds acquired newspapers for their real estate

47:30 Journalism has to be done in-person and in the field

48:15 What would Harry Reid’s advice be for the Dem party of today?

49:45 Reid died early on into the process of Jon writing “The Game Changer”

50:45 Reid wouldn’t be happy with what Chuck Schumer is doing

53:00 Reid and McConnell collectively delegitimized the judicial branch

55:00 How would Reid have handled confrontation with Trump?

59:15 How are you feeling about your Buffalo Bills?

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