GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao
Top Traders Unplugged
Introduction
A discussion on the belief that the world will return to a pre-pandemic low inflation environment, emphasizing the inflation break-even curve and Walmart's statement, and setting the stage for conversations about markets and investing in the podcast episode.
Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao?
06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient?
11:20 - The typical electoral cycle?
16:44 - The outlook for inflation
19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?
26:07 - Rates going back to zero?
28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth
31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production
32:57 - China - a deflationary force
38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises?
39:29 - Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?
42:07 - Have yields reached their peak?
42:54 - The situation in Europe
45:20 - Back to the 2010s?
46:36 - A global increase in spending?
47:37 - Concerns from a global risk perspective
51:00 - The Japanese economy
52:35 - The outlook for emerging markets
54:45 - Advice for other traders
55:59 - Thanks for listening
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