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#33 Classic episode - Anders Sandberg on cryonics, solar flares, and the annual odds of nuclear war

80,000 Hours Podcast

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The Art of Prediction: Confidence and Complexity

This chapter explores the nuances of making accurate probability estimates for future events, reflecting on the speaker's past predictions and the importance of calibrating confidence levels. It highlights the challenges of formulating relevant questions, reaching consensus in forecasting, and the implications of historical monetary bets in the scientific community.

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