The Relationship Between Recessions and Stock Returns

In this episode, we start by learning about the complex relationship between recessions and stock returns before welcoming Huston Loke and Jordan Solway from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) to discuss protecting consumers in the financial investment space. Huston is the Executive Vice President of Market Conduct, and Jordan is the Executive Vice President of Legal and Enforcement at FSRA. The FSRA supervises insurance companies, mortgage brokers, credit unions, pensions and other non-securities areas of the financial services sector. We discuss the objectives of the FSRA, their approach to protecting consumers, enforcement strategies, upcoming regulations, and more. Then, we welcome back Mark McGrath to learn about the Passive Investment Grind (PIG) concept for this week's Mark to Market segment, and we take a look back at a previous episode with Ted Seides of Capital Allocators. Finally, we are joined by author Tim Hale to discuss the new edition of his book Smarter Investing before closing off with our usual after-show roundup. Tune in now!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

(0:03:22) The relationship between recessions and stock returns, the definition of a technical recession, and the role of media in shaping perceptions.

(0:09:33) Why bad economic conditions don't necessarily warrant changes to investment strategies and why attempts to time the market based on recession news should be avoided. 

(0:13:42) Introducing Huston Loke and Jordan Solway and background about the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRA). 

(0:15:34) Objectives of the FSRA and the principle of putting the client’s interest first. 

(0:18:55) What aspects of financial advisory services FSRA regard as the most important. 

(0:20:30) Unpacking the “Take-All-Comers” rule in Ontario and how it protects consumers. 

(0:25:32) How successful the title protection rule has been in Ontario and how it differentiates between the title of financial advisor and financial planner. 

(0:29:21) Concerns about the rollout of the title protection rule and the disparity across various designations. 

(0:33:26) Advice for identifying a suitable financial advisor or planner and how the FSRA is helping cross-check credentials. 

(0:37:19) FSRA's findings in a review of tiered recruitment model life insurance MGAs and the enforcement action taken. 

 (0:44:47) Insights into commission-based compensation structures for financial products and upcoming commission disclosure rules.

(0:49:09) Additional steps consumers can take to avoid bad financial advice and services. 

(0:50:49) Recommendations for budding financial planners or advisors to ensure they get the correct training. 

(0:53:23) Discover the infinite banking concept and what future initiatives Huston and Jordan are most excited about. 

(0:59:35) Mark explains the passive investment grind concept in our Mark to Market segment. 

(1:09:21) Recapping essential takeaways from a previous episode with Ted Seides.

(1:12:02) Tim Hale discusses his book Smarter Investing, his motivation for writing it, his intended audience, and its main takeaways. 

(1:20:09) How the financial landscape has changed since the first edition of his book and his shift toward systematic investing. 

(1:25:25) Tim shares what he thinks are the biggest mistakes investors make and behavioural biases that influence investors’ decisions. 

(1:27:58) Final words of wisdom Tim has for listeners and how his approach applies to markets outside of the UK. 

(1:29:45) Aftershow roundup, listener reviews, book recommendations, and more! 

 

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Links From Today’s Episode:

 Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ 

Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/

Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Paying It Forward to Yourself (Webinar) — https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/4416996396442/WN_35_OSP3XT9Gabu6KjIT4Tg

Investing 101 (Webinar) — https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/2317000628845/WN_snfu-ZhzQKeB6CZSw1yHuA#/registration

‘Should my investment strategy change during a recession?’ — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-investing-strategy-during-a-recession/

C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council — https://www.cdhowe.org/council/business-cycle-council

Episode 171: Prof. Campbell R. Harvey — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/171

‘Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests’ — https://www.jstor.org/stable/222452

‘… and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns’ — https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Published_Papers/P118_and_the_cross.PDF 

Huston Loke — https://www.fsrao.ca/about-fsra/leadership/huston-loke

Huston Loke on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/hloke/

Jordan Solway — https://www.fsrao.ca/about-fsra/leadership/jordan-solway

Jordan Solway on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/jordan-solway-4a261314/

Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRA) — https://www.fsrao.ca/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/

Mark McGrath on X — https://twitter.com/MarkMcGrathCFP   Mark McGrath on Calendly — https://calendly.com/mark_mcgrath/

Episode 61: Ted Seides — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/61

Ted Seides on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/tedseides

Ted Seides on Twitter — https://twitter.com/tseides

Capital Allocators — https://www.capitalallocators.com/

Tim Hale on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-hale-4b67ba24/

Life on Our Planet — https://www.imdb.com/title/tt23181388/

The Behavioral Divide Podcast — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-behavioral-divide-with-hal-hershfield/id1713168854

Episode 278: Juhani Linnainmaa — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/278

 

Books From Today’s Episode:

 Smarter Investing — https://www.amazon.com/Smarter-Investing-Simpler-Decisions-Results/dp/0273722077

Albion Strategic Consulting — https://albionstrategic.com/

Winning the Loser's Game – https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Losers-Game-Seventh-Strategies/dp/1259838048

Tightwads and Spendthrifts — https://www.amazon.com/Tightwads-Spendthrifts-Navigating-Minefield-Relationships/dp/1250280079

Clear Thinking — https://www.amazon.com/Clear-Thinking-Turning-Ordinary-Extraordinary/dp/0593086112

Strangers in Paradise — https://www.amazon.com/Strangers-Paradise-Families-Wealth-Generations/dp/0615894356/

Wealth 3.0 — https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-3-0-Future-Family-Advising/dp/B0C9SHFSGM Same as Ever — https://www.amazon.com/Same-Ever-Guide-Never-Changes/dp/0593332709/