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Episode 3 - Probabilistic Forecasting using MonteCarlo

Drunk Agile

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How to Use Monte Carlo to Forecast Future Outcomes

Monte Carlo is a way of simulating future outcomes to come up with probabilities, but mechanically, how does it work? I mean, what for teams, like if I'm a team and I'm trying to forecast, say, a release state, how do I use Monte Carlo simulation for that? Well, probably, you know, as pictures with 1000 words, so I'm going to screen share. All right. So this is the teams historical looks like for the past one to three months. The past three months, this is how many things they got done every day in the past three months. What's important from Monte Carlo perspective, at least as applying it to a team's

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