5min chapter

Forward Guidance cover image

How To Spot Overvalued Companies | Tobias Carlisle

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

The Role of Price to Book in Value Over the Past Ten Years

Over the past five to ten years value was remarkably predictable and consistent in delivering alpha against the growthiest stocks. Low interest rates low inflation low growth central banky easing has made this cocktail of value in a performance which is not normal. Value investors do it in an ad hoc fashion you buy something undervalued and you sell it when it reaches fair value but we're in an unusual market where the most expensive stuff is just it can't generate returns at this level over a decade.

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