ToKCast cover image

Ep 128: Steven Pinker’s ”Rationality” Chapter 5 ”Beliefs & Evidence (Bayesian Reasoning” Remarks & Analysis

ToKCast

00:00

Basian Inferent Generation - Base Rate Neglect and the Representativeness Huristic

Basian reasoning is often about. Unfortunately, it is not rational. It shouldn't be a part of rationality. We neglect the base rate, which is usually the best estimate of prior probability in the medical diagnosis problem. Our heads are turned by the positive result, the likelihood, and we forget about how rare the disease is in the population. You don't know. You're prophesying. And yet, this is what basian inferent generation is all about.

Transcript
Play full episode

The AI-powered Podcast Player

Save insights by tapping your headphones, chat with episodes, discover the best highlights - and more!
App store bannerPlay store banner
Get the app