New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 273 to discuss the markets and the economy.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond
Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/
00:00 Introduction: Larry McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report
00:47 Getting long high beta names in April, now lightening positions
02:18 Add high beta into fear/panic, lighten into complacency
04:11 Warning about "Liz Truss moment" for America - bond panic scenario
06:38 Debt ceiling suspension creates $1.7 trillion bond issuance catch-up
08:04 Bessent's "bag of tricks" to fight bond vigilantes
09:33 Dollar counter-trend rally from front-end Treasury issuance
11:41 Mechanics of dollar rally: need dollars to buy Treasuries
13:53 Emerging market bonds outperforming long-term Treasuries
16:14 Question whether "bag of tricks" arrives on time to help bonds
17:05 Financial repression explanation: suppress rates below inflation
18:40 Bond vigilantes back despite Bessent's interventions
19:35 Commodities renaissance: copper names up 200-300% over 5 years
21:51 New portfolio construction: gold, copper, uranium, lithium miners
24:08 Risk: banks exposed to $5 trillion in commercial real estate debt
25:09 Jamie Dimon and Buffett selling banks at "alarming pace"
26:31 Optimistic on lithium trade and Chile election outcome
26:55 Expecting 100 basis points in rate cuts due to debt burden
28:12 Coal names oversold, offshore drilling opportunities
30:00 Closing remarks
