People keep saying the economy is in the toilet and the US government keeps raising its estimate for GDP. The general public isn't wrong, GDP is. How do we know? Because that's what GDP says - its other side. Not as well known, it should be because this is the one which is far more accurate during cyclical downturns. History, academic studies, consistency with other signals, not to mention how much it backs up popular perception. Everything including the better side of GDP is lined up against GDP.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jeremy Nalewaik Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/2010a_bpea_nalewaik.pdf
CNBC Dollar General shares crater 25% as retailer cuts outlook, blaming ‘financially constrained’ customers
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/29/dollar-general-shares-crater-20percent-as-retailer-cuts-outlook-blaming-financially-constrained-customers.html
CNBC Lululemon cuts guidance, misses sales estimates after botched product launch
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/29/lululemon-lulu-earnings-q2-2024.html
Morningstar Lululemon Earnings: Near-Term Outlook Dims, but Profitability and Underlying Brand Strength Hold
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/lululemon-earnings-near-term-outlook-dims-profitability-underlying-brand-strength-hold
UBS “Vibecession”? - The paradox between hard data and sentiment
https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/insights/market-news/article.1608955.html
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
