3min chapter

The Tim Ferriss Show cover image

#606: Balaji S. Srinivasan — 5-10-Year Predictions, How to Start a New Country, Society-as-a-Service (SaaS), Bitcoin Maximalism, Memetic Warfare, How Prices Are Born, Moral Flippenings, The One Commandment, and The Power of Missionary over Mercenary

The Tim Ferriss Show

CHAPTER

How to Overestimate Your Predictability

We're a sort of re entering high volatility times. Companies and governments shield people from volatility to tent that we don't really think about that much. People in general succumb to this sometimes, to over estimate their predictive ability. What is very helpful is sait a time. It could be once a year, jan one, Jan five, doesn't really matter. Where you identify, say, i'm just picking a time frame, six months from now. And then set a reminder to look at them three months or six months later.

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