Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez cover image

David Dredge On Defining Risk, Profiting from Extreme Moves, and Convexity

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

00:00

I Like Your Idea of X Versu F of X

The relationship between economic fundamentals and markets is so unstable that you actually don't know how it's going to map. In n f x ers, as famous paper by mis rogoff in the early 19 eighties, they where they ran all these models on f x forecasting. And what you'll find is there's virtually no impact to returns in virtually all the outcomes of that underlying. The only impact in returns is the outcomes that are in the two per centile wings. But the guy who had positively convex risk, where he was protected on the downside and participative on the upside, performs very, very well on the wings.

Transcript
Play full episode

The AI-powered Podcast Player

Save insights by tapping your headphones, chat with episodes, discover the best highlights - and more!
App store bannerPlay store banner
Get the app