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Ep 128: Steven Pinker’s ”Rationality” Chapter 5 ”Beliefs & Evidence (Bayesian Reasoning” Remarks & Analysis

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The Limitation of Bay's Theorem

We can't apply bay's theorem to real life. We assume all else as being equal between these green and blue taxi companies. Maybe the police know something we don't when they turn up. I don't think trigonometry is necessarily acquired to reason your way through life, except for particular people. It'd have to be very, very artificial like this. And if it was the case that you needed to do this, well, that's what a mathematician is for. But the average person doesn't need to reason in this way.

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