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The Pendulum of Investor Psychology
The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. When things get too hot, they try and cool things down. When things gets too cold, they try to heat it up a little bit. These markets make the same pendulum-like swing between euphoria and depression.
On today’s episode, Clay reviews Howard Marks’ book – Mastering the Market Cycle. This is a wonderful book for understanding market cycles and where we are at in the cycle at any given time. Most investors aren’t aware of the cyclicality of markets and are prone to fall victim to greed and fear at the exact wrong times. Superior investors are aware of markets cycles, and position themselves to profit from them.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro.
03:32 - Why it’s important to understand market cycles to be a superior investor.
11:05 - What drives market cycles and why they exist.
23:14 - How to think about the economic cycle, and the governments role in managing the economic cycles.
30:53 - How to identify where we are at in a market cycle.
32:08 - Why the market’s mood resembles that of a pendulum swinging back and forth.
32:30 - Why cycles are inevitable, and will likely always be a key driver of markets into the future.
38:47 - What the greatest source of investment risk is.
58:03 - What Howard Marks learned from managing billions of dollars during the great financial crisis.
58:57 - Why the credit cycle is the most volatile of all cycles, and has the greatest impact on markets.
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
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