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216 | John Allen Paulos on Numbers, Narratives, and Numeracy
Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas
Problems in Probability
The probability of two boys given at least one boy born in the summer is seven-fifteenths, which is close to a half. The more precise you are about the boy she does have, if they have two boys, at least one of whom is born on July 4th, then the probability is almost a half. It's hard without writing out the sample space, but it's so difficult of problems in many problems in probability. They're counter intuitive. That's one reason people have problems with probability. Their probabilistic vocabulary is limited to one in a million maybe or 50-50 or sure think. And on top of that, people don't think naturally in terms of
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