Economic Downturn and Jobs Weakness

This week, the gang dives into a grim economic landscape, tackling the week's bad news with their signature candor before scraping for some silver linings.

The bad news hits hard: the U.S. government shutdown, now in its eighth day, is costing $7-15 billion weekly, furloughing 1.9 million workers and delaying critical jobs data, with ADP and Moody’s signaling near-zero job growth in September, concentrated in healthcare and large firms. American farmers face bankruptcy risks as tariffs inflate prices and competitors like Argentina and Brazil snag deals with China. J.P. Morgan pegs recession odds at 40% by year-end, and tech stocks, puffed up by AI hype, teeter on the edge of a bust.

Chad rants about tariffs, ICE raids, and H1B visa hikes pushing talent away, calling the economy “cataclysmic,” while J.T. laments the understated jobs crisis, with six-figure earners jobless for months. Joel highlights the plight of farmers, noting the regressive impact of tariffs on the poor and the absurdity of subsidizing competitors like Argentina.

Switching to good news, the trio finds some hope: Upwork’s CEO Hayden Brown reports a 50%+ surge in demand for AI skills like prompt engineering, with Gen Z poised to benefit from freelance opportunities. A Yale study suggests ChatGPT hasn’t yet disrupted U.S. jobs significantly, and Workday’s expanded real estate footprint and Netflix’s $700,000 AI product manager role signal niche growth.

J.T. sees promise in fractional work for seasoned professionals, while Chad warns AI is quietly automating tasks (like scheduling at GM, cutting 100+ jobs) and questions the longevity of roles like prompt engineering.

Joel agrees, likening AI jobs to short-lived 90s webmaster roles, predicting they’ll train systems to replace themselves.The episode also covers LinkedIn’s lawsuit against Pro APIs for scraping millions of profiles with fake accounts, a growing headache as AI amplifies such schemes, and the launch of Filament, a $10.7M-funded, invite-only LinkedIn rival that Chad dismisses as redundant given existing group chats on WhatsApp and Slack.

Finally, they tackle Gen X’s financial woes, with only 25% holding retirement accounts and student debt crushing the rest. J.T. sees universal basic income (UBI) as a potential bridge for Gen X to pivot careers, but Joel balks at the idea, citing their fiercely independent ethos, while Chad ties the crisis to the shift from pensions to 401ks and broader systemic failures.

The episode closes with a heated debate on whether UBI or corporate reinvestment in communities could stem the tide, leaving listeners with a mix of grim realities and cautious optimism for a creative, freelance-driven future.

Chapters

00:00 - Introduction and Fall Vibes

03:32 - Shout Outs and Remembrances

09:51 - Economic Concerns and Job Market Analysis

18:57 - AI and Job Market Dynamics

27:31 - LinkedIn Lawsuit and Professional Networking

47:44 - Gen X Financial Challenges and UBI Discussion