Credit Signals: Oracle CDS and Market Health

​​We’re looking ahead to the crucial Fed decision next week  — and the central bank may be on a collision course with the market, with inflation, and possibly with its own incoming leadership.

Amber sits down with Dustin Reid, Chief Strategist, Fixed Income at Mackenzie Investments for a wide-ranging and deeply insightful breakdown of what’s about to hit the economy. Reid explains why chaotic Fed communication set the stage for this moment, why the December cut might be the last one for a long time, and what happens if the next Fed chair cuts rates no matter what the data says.

They dig into the true state of the U.S. economy, the K-shaped consumer, whether inflation is really stuck near 3%, and how tariff pass-through and aggressive fiscal stimulus could complicate the path ahead. 

Then the focus shifts to Canada, where Reid argues the Bank of Canada is not done — predicting at least two more cuts by June 2026 as the country confronts a cooling housing market, stalled population growth, and wildly conflicting job data. He breaks down why labour market figures are sending opposite signals, how Blue Jays mania distorted the numbers, and what the real picture looks like under the surface.

Amber and Dustin dive into how AI megacap spending has become a bigger driver of U.S. growth than the consumer, whether cracks in the AI trade will first show up in credit, why Oracle’s CDS spike may be more idiosyncratic than systemic, where private credit stress could ripple next, and how USMCA brinkmanship could impact Canadian markets in 2026.

In the Mailbag, Dustin gives his thoughts on the TLT, unpacks the truth about de-dollarization, and explains whether target-maturity bond funds really make sense for retail investors.

And in Pro Picks, he lays out his highest-conviction positioning for 2026: long the Canadian front end, short the U.S. front end, and why the EM FX carry could be one of the most overlooked opportunities for Canadian investors.

Timestamps
00:00 Questrade’s new tools for investors. Use promo code INTHEMONEY

02:00 Show intro
04:25 Looking ahead to a very important Fed rate decision 

06:50 Why Dustin thinks the Fed will stop cutting in the new year 

10:20 What about Trump’s new Fed pick and the risk of a policy mistake
14:40 The fixed income market could become an issue 

17:40 U.S. fiscal policy
21:10 The bond vigilantes
22:45 AI spending and the bond market
28:00 High-yield debt and should we expect more issuances in 2026
30:00 Private credit defaults
33:00 Why Dustin think the BOC is NOT done cutting rates 

35:00 Canadian data & the baseball effect
41:00 What about inflation?
42:50 The trade risk for Canada
45:15 ITM Mailbag: Thoughts on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
47:00 USD and the role of de-dollarization
52:50 Target bond funds
54:20 Dustin’s Pro Picks (Long Canadian front end, short U.S. front end, EM FX carry trade)

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DISCLAIMERS 

The information provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.

In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone looking to sharpen their financial strategy.

Contact: questions@inthemoneypod.com

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